World cup 2022 Semi-finals predictions

The end is near

Another update: semi-final predictions. The calculations remain the same.

We are nearing the end of this World Cup. [Dall E]

Recap (again)

In the previous blogs we have created three different strategies:

1. Predict the most common outcome overall, meaning 1–0 or 0–1 only
2. Predict the most likely outcome according to a probability density function
3. Predict the outcome with the highest expected value

Predictions

Below are the predictions for the upcoming semi-finals.

The difference in FIFA rating for these matches is surprisingly large, resulting in a clear preference for a victory instead of a tie for all strategies.

If Portugal and Brazil would have claimed victory in the previous round, we would have only countries from the top 10 FIFA ranks remaining.

However, Croatia and Morocco were both able to beat their higher-ranked opponents, leading to a larger rating difference in these semi-finals.

Both matches are considered a “match of the day” in my poule, hence the high Expected Values.

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