World cup 2022 Round of 16 predictions

This one will be short

Just a quick update with the new predictions for the round of 16. The calculations remain the same.

Let’s get some more points in the next round. [Dall E]

Recap

In the previous blogs we have created three different strategies:

1. Predict the most common outcome overall, meaning 1–0 or 0–1 only
2. Predict the most likely outcome according to a probability density function
3. Predict the outcome with the highest expected value

Predictions

Below are the predictions for the upcoming round of 16.

For this round, all the EV calculations resulted in 0–1, meaning they are exactly the same as the “most common” strategy, which is not shown.

The only prediction that is not the same in all strategies is shown in bold.

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